Why ATP Players Are Directing More Second Serves To The Forehand | ATP Tour

Coaches have for years drilled into budding tennis players and professionals that serving to the backhand provides a stronger chance of winning second-serve points. In fact, it is clear that this tactic is the norm on the ATP Tour. Fifty per cent of serves have been directed to the backhand corner and 35 per cent to the body – mainly to the backhand side – leaving only 15 per cent of serves delivered to the forehand.

The thinking is simple: Serving to the backhand provides a safer option when sending down a slower delivery on the second serve. Naturally, forehand returns are more dangerous, so a high ball to the backhand provides a better chance of neutralising the opponent’s return, while reducing the risk of double faulting.

Animation 1: Serve Zone Trajectories on second serves to Deuce court: Win % and In %

However, the growth of increasingly sophisticated data and analysis of each and every action in the sport of tennis undermines the logic behind this long-held belief.

ATP players win 51 per cent of points when serving to the forehand corner versus just 49 per cent when serving to the backhand corner.

In other words, primarily directing the second serve to the backhand of an ATP opponent typically reduces the chances of winning the point. This information is derived from detailed analysis for nearly 150 right-handed ATP players with at least 1,000 second serves to right-handed opponents over a 10-year period.

Table 1: High frequency and second-serve win per centage to forehand and backhand corners of 150 right-handed ATP players with at least 1,000 second serves to right-handed opponents over a 10-year period.

What’s more, well-placed deuce-side second serves to the forehand corner generate 8.5 per cent more points won than well-placed serves to the backhand corner of the same service box. Perhaps even more surprisingly, second serves to the forehand corner in the deuce court lead to eight per cent more unreturned serves and lead servers to win 17 per cent more deuce-side return points in shorter rallies of five or fewer shots.

Animation 2: Win % heatmap for placement of second serves to Deuce court

All of this goes to highlight the growing importance of accessing and understanding detailed data analysis on Tour to enable players to leverage every marginal gain available to them. This is why Tennis Data Innovations is committed to delivering detailed tracking data on every court across the ATP Tour in 2023, to shed light on the…