The Nancy Richey Group reaches its midway point on Day 3 of the WTA Finals Fort Worth as No.2 seed Ons Jabeur faces No.3 seed Jessica Pegula in a rematch of the Madrid final, and No.5 seed Maria Sakkari takes on No.7 seed Aryna Sabalenka at a second straight WTA Finals.
Sakkari, who Monday defeated Pegula in straight sets, has the opportunity to seal her semifinal place if she wins in straight sets again. Conversely, Pegula will be eliminated if she loses in straight sets.
If Pegula beats Jabeur and Sakkari beats Sabalenka, Jabeur will be eliminated and Sakkari will advance as group winner. (Pegula and Sabalenka would play for second spot on Friday.)
Day 1 reports: Sakkari d. Pegula | Sabalenka d. Jabeur
If Jabeur beats Pegula and Sabalenka beats Sakkari, Pegula will be eliminated and Sabalenka will advance as group winner. (Sakkari and Jabeur would play for second spot on Friday.)
Any other combination of results will mean advancement comes down to the final matches.
WTA Finals group scenarios: How Sakkari can advance to the semifinals
[2] Ons Jabeur (TUN) vs. [3] Jessica Pegula (USA)
Head-to-head: Jabeur leads 3-2 (2-0 in 2022, 2-2 on hard courts)
1. Jabeur owns their recent head-to-head. Jabeur lost their first two meetings, but has won all three since last September, including victory in the Madrid final this May to capture her first WTA 1000 title. However, it hasn’t been a straightforward pendulum swing. Wild momentum shifts characterise most of their matches. Pegula’s last win in the series was in the 2021 Montréal quarterfinals with a 1-6, 7-6(4), 6-0 score line. Jabeur’s first win over the American came 1-6, 6-2, 6-3 in the 2021 Chicago quarterfinals, and the Madrid final score line was a topsy-turvy 7-5, 0-6, 6-2.
They have also played once on indoor hard courts, when neither was ranked in the Top 100, with Pegula winning 7-6(3), 6-4 in the 2018 Québec City second round en route to her first WTA final.
2. The Fort Worth conditions may favour Jabeur. After the first day of play in Fort Worth, consensus among the players was that the court is slow and low-bouncing. Pegula, in particular, said that she struggled to adapt.
“Usually if there’s a slow court, [it] bounces a little higher,” she said after her loss to Sakkari. “But I think it’s also weird because you’re indoors and you’re expecting indoors to be quicker. And it’s not. But it’s not bad. It’s just very slow […] I think it definitely caters to the…