From 2002 to 2004, the French Open men’s draw was an absolute free-for-all. The No. 1 seed lost in the third round twice and the fourth round once. Only three of 12 semifinalists were seeded in the top six. Three different players — Albert Costa, Juan Carlos Ferrero and Gaston Gaudio — won the title.
In 2005, Rafael Nadal arrived at Roland Garros and removed all mystery from the proceedings. He rolled to the title, then did so again in 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2022. On the rare occasion that he didn’t win, generally Novak Djokovic (three times) or Roger Federer (once) did. Only Stan Wawrinka‘s 2015 title came as anything resembling a surprise, and it happened at least in part because Nadal was coming back from a wrist injury.
Therefore, the 2024 French Open is as wide open on the men’s side as it has been in 20 years. Nadal is attempting to maintain a goodbye tour after a long time on the sideline but is just 5-3 on clay this year. Djokovic, who recently joined Nadal in the “age 37 club,” has struggled so much to find a rhythm that he is playing in the Geneva tournament this week in hopes of finding his misplaced form. Carlos Alcaraz, last year’s French Open runner-up and a two-time Slam champion, is battling a lingering right forearm injury. Jannik Sinner, the Australian Open winner and by far the best men’s player of 2024, suffered a hip injury a few weeks ago and isn’t sure how well he will compete.
All four men are still in the field, mind you. So is 2016 finalist Andy Murray, another celebrated veteran on a farewell tour. The retiring Dominic Thiem, however, is not, as he was inexplicably denied a wild card despite reaching the semis in Paris four times and the finals twice. The big names are here, but all are mysteries. If you’re a Stefanos Tsitsipas, or an Alexander Zverev, or a Casper Ruud, there may never be a better time to strike.
On the women’s side, however, it’s Iga Swiatek vs. the field. Swiatek, the three-time French Open champion, is 21-1 on clay, with just five dropped sets, since last year’s French Open began. ESPN BET lists her title odds at -160, meaning she has better odds than the other 127 players in the field combined. She’s the best player in the world, and clay is her best surface.
Thanks to both the best-of-three format and Nadal, Djokovic and…
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