It was an odd year for American tennis.
There were, as always, random thrills and breakthroughs. On the men’s side, for instance, Tommy Paul reached the semifinals of the Australian Open, and Christopher Eubanks enjoyed a late-career breakthrough at Wimbledon. But the year as a whole often felt like one of stagnation.
Taylor Fritz basically ended the year where he started from a rankings standpoint and couldn’t turn a top-10 ranking into sustained threats in Grand Slams. Frances Tiafoe dipped his toe into the ATP top 10 but suffered a major funk at the end of the year. Sebastian Korda seemed primed for a breakthrough but missed months with an injury. Reilly Opelka was still working back from injury. Jenson Brooksby was suspended for 18 months for missed drug tests. John Isner faded, then retired.
On the women’s side, Jessica Pegula and Coco Gauff both remained steady threats, but for much of the year, they, too, seemed to be running in place a bit. Veterans like Madison Keys, Danielle Collins and Sloane Stephens battled consistency issues. Jennifer Brady was still working back from injury.
The US Open changed quite a bit. Gauff kicked into top-three mode over the summer and rode it to her first Slam title, while Keys came within a heartbreaking third-set tiebreak loss of the finals. Meanwhile, Fritz, Tiafoe and up-and-comer Ben Shelton broke into the quarterfinals, with the 21-year-old Shelton swaggering his way into the semis.
With lots of stars making gains and a couple breaking through in a major way, suddenly 2023 went from a year of stagnation to tantalizing development and depth. What will 2024 have in store? Do players such as Pegula, Fritz and Tiafoe still have another level to add to their respective games? Can Gauff maintain her otherworldly summer and fall form? Does Shelton’s trajectory continue? Acknowledging that there are also surprises — and that tennis’ brief offseason is the perfect time for “Here’s where [player] overcomes injuries and surges again” optimism — here are our predictions for the top 10 American men and women, ranked by their 2024 prospects.
Women
1. Coco Gauff
Age: 19; Current WTA rank: third (this time last year: seventh)
We talk a lot about ceilings in a piece like this, and for a while it felt as if Gauff…
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