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French Open 2024: How will Nadal fare? Who will surprise?

French Open 2024: How will Nadal fare? Who will surprise?

After a very challenging year due to injuries, how will 14-time French Open champ Rafael Nadal play in what may be his final tournament at Roland Garros? And after a tough season so far, can Novak Djokovic come back to win a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam title?

Iga Swiatek is looking unbeatable right now — but could Elena Rybakina, Aryna Sabalenka or Coco Gauff stand in her way?

Our experts weigh in as the French Open begins Sunday.


How do you think Nadal will fare here?

Bill Connelly: When we last saw Nadal in 2022, he was holding serve 79% of the time and breaking 40% of the time on clay. In 11 clay matches this year, he’s actually holding 81% of the time … but breaking only 30%. His defense — and his ability to turn defense into offense — isn’t quite as strong, and he just drew maybe the worst possible first-round matchup. Alexander Zverev is an even more consistent big server than Hubert Hurkacz, and Hurkacz manhandled Nadal in Rome. The crowd will try as hard as it can to carry him, but it’s hard to be optimistic about him winning one last match at Roland Garros.

Tom Hamilton: Nadal has surprised us before. Remember that Australian Open triumph in 2022 when he won the whole thing just a few months after he thought he was going to have to retire? Then he won Roland Garros later that year with a numb foot as he coped with the chronic pain caused by Müller-Weiss syndrome.

If anyone can find one last fortnight of magic, it’s Nadal. But as we’ve learned with tennis, rarely does it grant fairy-tale endings. We just don’t know how the 14-time champion is faring and feeling. But what’s for sure: He’ll wring every last ounce out of his frame for (likely) one last shot at the title.

D’Arcy Maine: I agree with Tom that if anyone is going to find some last-minute, unexpected magic at Roland Garros, it would be Nadal, but this draw did not do him any favors. Having to face Zverev — the No. 4 seed who just won the title in Rome — in the first round is going to be incredibly tricky. Zverev has reached the French Open semis three times, including last year, and he has momentum and health on his side at the moment. It would be amazing to see one last Nadal run at his favorite tournament, but it just seems unlikely considering his recent results and injury struggles.


Will Djokovic get his season back on track in…

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