Wimbledon 2023 – Five players who could upset Novak Djokovic

Every tournament has favorites. Rarely does a tennis tournament have someone who’s favored against the rest of the field combined. Then again, rarely is a player as dominant as Novak Djokovic has been at Wimbledon.

Djokovic has won 31 matches in a row at Wimbledon, and he’s won 43 of his last 45 on grass. Neither of the two players who beat him — a retired Tomas Berdych or an injured Marin Cilic — entered the Wimbledon field this year. Djokovic began the quest for his eighth Wimbledon crown with betting odds of -175, per Caesars. Those are implied title odds of 64% for him and 36% for the other 127 players in the field. Three rounds into the tournament, his odds are up to -200 (equivalent to 67%). And good luck finding someone confidently willing to bet against him.

Still, there are four rounds to go, and, well, this is a tennis tournament. Strange things happen! Djokovic lost to Sam Querrey at Wimbledon in 2016 and to Berdych in both 2010 and 2017. He may be the safest bet in the sport, but there are no 100% guarantees.

With that in mind, let’s talk about the obstacles he still faces in the rounds to come. First, following his straight-set win over Stan Wawrinka on Friday, here’s Djokovic’s likely remaining Wimbledon path:

Fourth round: No. 17 Hubert Hurkacz

Quarterfinals: No. 7 Andrey Rublev (64% chance of reaching the round, per Tennis Abstract) or No. 23 Alexander Bublik (36%)

Semifinals: No. 8 Jannik Sinner (73%), No. 26 Denis Shapovalov (15%), Roman Safiullin (10%), Daniel Elahi Galan (3%)

Finals: No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz (37%), No. 3 Daniil Medvedev (23%), No. 5 Stefanos Tsitsipas (11%), Matteo Berrettini (6%), No. 10 Frances Tiafoe (6%), No. 6 Holger Rune (5%), No. 16 Tommy Paul (3%), nine others under 3%

Who are the five players with the best chance of pulling a major upset, and handing Djokovic his first Wimbledon loss since 2018?

1. Carlos Alcaraz

When he would play Djokovic: finals

Obviously we start with Alcaraz. He is the top-ranked player in the world, and he won one of their two head-to-head matches. He’s still learning how to play on grass — his second-round win over Alexandre Muller was just his 13th senior-level match on the surface — but he has won 10 of his past 11 grass matches and all seven in 2023. He learns quickly.

Alcaraz, 20, has plenty of hurdles remaining to get to what would be our first Djokovic-Alcaraz…