Way-too-early tennis rankings, and Grand Slam predictions for the rest of 2023

The Australian Open basically serves two primary purposes: Entertain us and set the table for the rest of the tennis season.

Following a delightful two-week run that saw Aryna Sabalenka‘s first Slam title, plus some shocking mid-tournament plot twists, early-tournament Andy Murray heroics, strong showings from American males and — oh yeah, Novak Djokovic‘s 22nd Slam title — we can say that the tournament officially accomplished the former.

Now let’s do the latter. It’s time to lay out who looks the best and who’s most likely to make runs at future Slams.

Here’s what to expect, and what to follow, from the tennis months ahead.

The 10 best men’s players in the world at the moment

We know that ATP and WTA rankings — and the tournament seeds that are derived from them — are not necessarily predictive power rankings, and that was never more clear than in Australia, where the top seed on the men’s side went to Rafael Nadal, who entered the tournament having lost six of his past seven matches while battling injury. The second seed went to Casper Ruud, who entered having lost eight of 13. They both exited in the second round, while Djokovic, the No. 4 seed but obvious betting favorite, rolled to the title.

To determine the actual best players in the world at the moment, then, I’m going to use a combination of ATP/WTA points, my favorite publicly available predictive rating (the simple Elo rating system at Tennis Abstract) and a combination of my own eyeballs’ impressions and a look at who performs best against other top players.

No matter what approach we use, of course, there is only one possibility for the top name on the men’s side.

1. Novak Djokovic
ATP ranking: 1
Tennis Abstract ranking: 1
2023 record (Australian Open result): 12-0 (champion)

With much of the world easing up on COVID-19 restrictions and vaccination requirements, Djokovic has been able to play enough tennis to find his top form again. He began 2022 in (completely self-inflicted) scattershot form, winning in Rome and reaching the finals in Belgrade but falling in a few quarterfinals and clearly lacking the fitness levels we’re used to seeing from him.

Since losing in four sets to Nadal in the French Open quarterfinals, however, he has lost just twice. He ground out his seventh Wimbledon title in the summer, and he won five of the six tournaments he has entered since the fall. He lost only one set in November’s ATP Finals, and after losing a second-set tiebreaker to qualifier