Clay courts can be unpredictable. From 1995 to 2004, before Rafael Nadal claimed Roland Garros as his own personal domain, the French Open gave five men — Thomas Muster, Carlos Moya, Albert Costa, Juan Carlos Ferrero and Gaston Gaudio — their first and only Slam titles. It also gave Gustavo Kuerten all three of his.
On the women’s side, it’s given first-and-only titles to Ana Ivanovic (2008), Francesca Schiavone (2010), Jelena Ostapenko (2017) and Barbora Krejcikova (2021), plus two of Iga Swiatek‘s three, four of Justine Henin‘s seven and one of two for Svetlana Kuznetsova, Li Na, Garbine Muguruza and Simona Halep.
With Nadal out and Novak Djokovic battling iffy form, we might be more vulnerable to a French Open surprise on the men’s side than we have been in quite a while. And while Swiatek looks about as good as ever on clay, the women’s draw is never too far from chaos.
Even with the rarity of grass-court play on the ATP and WTA tours, you could say that the French Open produces the most unique results of any Slam, at least when Nadal isn’t involved. So if we’re giving you the names of players you need to track as the 2023 French Open prepares to get underway, we have to make that list pretty long, just to be safe.
Here are 50 men and women capable of a French Open run over the next fortnight. We’ll separate them into tiers, from the top-level contenders through the intriguing longshots.
Tier 1: Absolute favorites
Iga Swiatek: She’s won 18 of her past 19 matches at Roland Garros and 40 of her last 44 on clay. Of her eight losses in the past nine months, six have come against either Aryna Sabalenka, Elena Rybakina or the clean-hitting Barbora Krejcikova. She’s the best player in the world, she knows clay and Caesars is giving her Nadal-esque title odds of -125 at the moment (equivalent to a 56% chance). She’s the favorite’s favorite in the women’s draw.
Carlos Alcaraz: With Djokovic’s recent wobbles, Alcaraz is the betting favorite on the men’s side, with +120 odds at Caesars (equivalent to a 45% chance). It’s his first Slam since he won the US Open back in September, and he has gone 20-2 on clay in 2023. If he’s healthy, it makes sense that he’s the favorite.
Novak Djokovic: It feels like he’s lulling us to sleep, doesn’t it? The 22-time Slam…
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