Can Carlos Alcaraz challenge the records of tennis’ greats?

The Big Three of men’s tennis — Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic — owned the sport for most of the 2000s. No one had won more than 14 men’s Grand Slam titles before they embarked on journeys to win 20, 22 and 24 of them, respectively. They vacuumed up so many records and so much of the sport’s history that it’s a wonder that they left any of it for anyone else.

And yet, Carlos Alcaraz has already staked out new ground. After winning the 2022 US Open — and becoming the youngest player in 32 years to do so — he became the youngest ever No. 1 player in the ATP rankings, aged just 19 years and four months. Then he won another Slam, and another, and another.

His French Open win in June made him the youngest man to win Slams on all three surfaces (hard, grass and clay). When he won his second Wimbledon title a month later, it made him the youngest man in the Open era to win the “Channel Slam” (the French-Wimbledon combo in one year). And if he wins either the US Open or the 2025 Australian Open, he will become the first person to ever win five Slam titles before his 22nd birthday. (Winning the Australian Open would also make him the youngest by far to win a career Slam)

The Big Three warped history, but Alcaraz is making a lot of it anyway. It’s impossible to look at his accomplishments to date and not already begin envisioning his path toward 20-plus Slams. But before Federer, Nadal and Djokovic, such feats were unthinkable. They have mostly aged out of competition: Federer retired, Nadal appears he will soon, and while Djokovic still rolls on, he’s 37 years old and in the middle of his least accomplished season in years. (Even though, for Djokovic, “least accomplished” still includes a Slam final and an Olympic gold medal)

Alcaraz appears to be the standard bearer for the future of the sport. This is apt considering his game is a futuristic mix of Djokovic’s speed and flexibility, Nadal’s passion and Federer’s shotmaking.

But what feats are actually possible — and fair to expect — in a post-Big Three universe? And what stands in the way of Alcaraz making an all-time career run?

Injuries and cautionary tales

It was only three years ago that Alcaraz enjoyed his first major breakout, surging to the 2021 US Open quarterfinals at age 18. He won matches at all four Slams that year, already hinting at potential all-surface…